Challenge

The client, one of Europe’s leading independent oil and gas exploration and development companies, had acquired a non-operating share in a UK North Sea 
field. The field was to be developed using a converted Suezmax ice-class tanker FPSO, one of the largest ever deployed in the region. The project faced challenges due to limited and unreliable information from the operator and construction yard, making it difficult to construct a realistic baseline schedule. There were 
also concerns that the project was already delayed and that the forecast plan was overly optimistic.

Solution

Lloyd’s Register (LR) Advisory was engaged to develop an independent view of the FPSO construction schedule and its current status. LR Advisory created a high-level deterministic schedule based on available data, augmented with insights from industry experience and client knowledge. Risks and uncertainties 
were assessed through workshops and captured in a project risk register, which was then integrated into a probabilistic schedule for Monte Carlo simulation.

Approach taken

A baseline deterministic schedule was constructed using key activities from operator and contractor reports, supplemented by expert input. Risk events and uncertainties were identified, quantified and incorporated into a risk register. This informed a probabilistic schedule which enabled robust simulation and forecasting of milestone dates, including ‘Sail-away’ and ‘First Oil’.

Key activities & outputs

  • Development of deterministic baseline schedule
  • Review and integration of operator/contractor status reports
  • Expert augmentation of schedule activities
  • Identification and analysis of risks and uncertainties
  • Monte Carlo simulation of schedule performance
  • Forecasting of key milestone dates.

Key client benefits

  •  Independent assessment of FPSO construction progress
  • Identification of unrealistic activity durations and logic
  • Forecasts for critical milestones enabling proactive decision-making
  • Improved transparency and accountability in project discussions
  • Support for business-critical cash flow and revenue planning

Project outcome

LR Advisory provided the client with a robust independent evaluation of project progress and likely schedule performance. This analysis revealed critical areas of concern and unrealistic planning assumptions, enabling more effective stakeholder engagement. The forecasts were instrumental in supporting the client’s commercial decision making and performance discussions with the operator.

Conclusion

This engagement demonstrated how structured schedule risk analysis can uncover hidden project risks and strengthen non-operating partners’ ability 
to influence outcomes. LR Advisory’s independent evaluation equipped the client to engage constructively with operators and better manage the financial impact of project uncertainties.

Impact on client's business & operations

The analysis supported better project governance by equipping the client with credible data to challenge forecasts and assess project risk. It also enabled more accurate financial forecasting and improved confidence in delivery planning.

Other applications

This approach is applicable to major offshore construction projects and can support both operators and non-operating partners in understanding schedule risk and project performance.